Home building rebounded from a six-month low in November, with improvement in new home construction in all sections of the nation, according to a government report issued Wednesday.

Construction of new homes rose to an annual rate of 574,000 during the month, 8.9% above the revised October rate of 527,000. The rate was still 12.4% below the 655,000 rate during November 2008.

A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 574,000 housing starts during the month.

New construction jumped the most in the Northeast, with a 16.4% rise from the previous month. Housing starts rose 12.3% in the South, 3% in the Midwest and 1.9% in the West.

The number of building permits issued during November rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000. That was 6% above the revised October rate of 551,000, and 7.3% below the November 2008 estimate of 630,000.

One reason for the October downturn was concern that an $8,000 homebuyer’s tax credit — part of the Obama administration’s economic stimulus — was going to expire on Dec. 1.

At the start of November, the credit was extended through the end of June and expanded to apply to more buyers. But David Crowe, chief economist at National Association of Homebuilders, said the bill hasn’t had a chance to impact the housing market.

“This is a recovery from the prior month,” said. “But we’re still seeing a tapering off toward the end of the year. During the middle of this year, we saw a nice buildup through the late summer as a result of the homebuyer’s tax credit.”

Housing starts peaked this year in July with an annual rate of 593,000.

“We’re in a bit of a lull, but the new (extended) credit will have an impact as we move into 2010 and consumers plan for that credit availability, and builders begin to answer expected demand in the spring,” he said.

Crowe added that the tight credit market has also made it difficult for builders to borrow money to start building projects.

“Builders are ready to begin restocking their inventories to prepare for the selling season, but they can’t get production credit from the banks,” Crowe said. “Banks are effectively making carte blanche decisions without recognizing projects that are in decent markets with viable futures.”

Crowe said he hopes President Obama’s recent pressure on Wall Street banks to help taxpayers who funded their bailouts will improve lending practices.

After four months of gains, home prices flattened in October. Worse yet, industry insiders think that they’ll soon start to fall.

Prices have risen more than 3% since May, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.

But most forecasts predict price declines in 2010, with possible losses ranging from anywhere from 3% on up. Fiserv Lending Solutions, a financial analytics firm, forecasts that prices will fall in all but 39 of the 381 markets it covers, with an average drop of 11.3%.

“We’ve seen recent price stabilization because of low mortgage interest rates and the impact of the first-time homebuyers tax credit,” said Pat Newport of IHS Global Research. “But there are really good reasons to think prices will now start going down.”

There are three main reasons for the reversal: a coming flood of foreclosures, rising interest rates and the eventual end of the tax credits.

For Gus Faucher, the director of macroeconomics for Moody’s Economy.com, the huge number of foreclosures that remain in the pipeline is the big problem.

Moody’s upped its estimate of defaults recently because of shortcomings of the government-led mortgage modification programs. Trial workouts are not being made permanent and completed modifications are redefaulting at high rates.

“There are going to be fewer [successful] modifications than we thought,” said Faucher.

Even so, he added, much of the price decline has already occurred and Moody’s forecast is for only another 8% drop. The worst-hit markets will be the ones suffering the most foreclosures, places like Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. (See 7 tips for buying foreclosures)

Resetting option ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) will also aggravate the foreclosure problem. These mortgages allow borrowers to pick their own payments, which can be so low they don’t even cover the interest. Balances swell.

For many of the more than 350,000 option-ARM borrowers, it’s time to pay the piper. Their loans will change into fully amortizing mortgages that will carry much higher monthly payments. A very large percentage of these homeowners will default, according to Shari Olefson, author of “Foreclosure Nation: Mortgaging the American Dream.”

“We’ve still only seen the tip of the foreclosure iceberg,” she said.

She also predicts more strategic defaults, people deliberately walking away from even fixed-rate mortgages as the value of their homes dips well below the amount they owe.

Olefson’s forecast is for price declines of 5% to 15%, depending on the area, with a national median price drop of about 10% for 2010.

Also affecting prices will be higher interest rates. Some analysts, according to Newport, think rates for a 30-year mortgage will pass 6% next year as the government curtails housing market support.

The Federal Reserve has helped keep rates low through purchases of mortgage-backed securities. But that program is winding down and will end in March.

“The government is throwing everything at the market but the kitchen sink,” said Peter Schiff, president of Euro pacific Capital. “It can’t prop up housing markets forever.”

Schiff is among the bigger bears. Though he gave no specific prediction, he thinks prices — already down 29% from the peak — are only halfway to the bottom.

As a tool for supporting housing markets and prices, the tax credit for homebuyers is a two-edged sword. It reduces taxes dollar-for-dollar by up to $8,000 for new homebuyers and $6,500 for buyers who already own a home and should support home prices. But it ends at the end of April.

Many buyers will push their deals forward to get in before the deadline and then demand for homes could sink afterward.

One of the few bulls out there is NAR, whose chief economist, Lawrence Yun, is counting on the tax credit to provide temporary support for housing markets until the economy recovers enough to start fueling sales. He predicts price improvement in 2010 of more than 3%.

“The headwind we face is rising mortgage interest rates,” Yun said, “but the compensating factors will be the homebuyers tax credit in the first half of the year and increased job creation in the second half.”

Home construction fell in December, government data showed Wednesday, while the number of building permits issued in the month rose.

Construction of new homes fell to an annual rate of 557,000 during the month, down 4% from the revised November rate of 580,000, the Commerce Department said.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected December housing starts to decline to an annual rate of 572,000.

But starts were up 0.2% versus the 556,000 rate in December 2008. It was the first year-over-year increase since March 2006, when starts rose 5.6%.

The decline in new home construction was led by a 6.9% drop in single-family activity, which offset gains in the multi-family sector.

“While starts registered another weak month, they remain within a range that has held for more than a year,” said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo.

Analysts said the drop in construction activity was due in part to the weather.

Temperatures were unusually high in November and “some homes that would have been started in December were instead started in November,” Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a research report.

Housing starts surged nearly 9% in November.

At the same time, many builders put new projects on hold late last year amid uncertainty surrounding the government’s first time homebuyer tax credit.

As a result, applications for building permits plunged in September and October, which in turn depressed housing starts in December.

“Now that the credit will benefit almost all homebuyers, not just first-timers, and will run until June 3, [builders] are preparing for increased demand,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Indeed, the number of building permits issued during December jumped 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000.

It was the biggest increase since June 2008 and surprised economists who had forecast a 0.7% decline in building permits.

Given the surge in building permits during December, “starts should now be expected to rebound strongly over the next few months,” Shepherdson said.

Still, many builders remain worried about the strength and sustainability of a recovery in housing with unemployment at 10% and a large number of foreclosed homes still on the market, York said.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders said its index of builder confidence declined one point to 15 in January.